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I was wrong about Tesla

4/2/2019

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In a blog post written in October, I mentioned Tesla is worth about $1000 per share. Well, I think it's worth above $3000. Probably by then, there will be share split. 

Here are my bullish thesis:
  • They are the ones who made all car companies start R&D in electric drive train
  • Number 1 in EVs and in general, CARS
    • They outsold every car brand out there in revenue
  • No real competitors ( Just like google and FB ) They are too far ahead of the game
    • Every "Tesla Killer" model that has been released till date like the Jaguar I-pace is a general mockery
  • Highest growth
    • All car manufacturers are facing double digit slumps. Tesla is the only company with double digit growth and Elon specifically mentioned during Q4 conference call, in a likely hood of a recession, the growth will minimally be at 50%
  • Unrelenting demand  
  • Autopilot
    • Their biggest and closest competitor is Waymo ( Google ) The only way to win in autopilot reliability is real world mileage and data. Tesla has 97% more data than Waymo and only to increase its lead with more cars sold.
  • Gigafactory 1, 2 and 3. With Gigafactory 1, they already dominate the world. With 2 and 3 coming up in Europe and China, there is no real competition in sight. 
  • The only 100% own company in China ( Chinese govt is not stupid to allow that )
  • They are not a car company. They are an energy company. There is too much to write about this in 1 point form.

With all the bad news behind and only convertible bonds to be paid up in March. There is only 1 direction they can go. If people fail to see, this is the next "iPhone" moment, it's really quite sad that in our lifetime, we have a real Albert Einstein living among us now and most people are too dumb to realise it. I've been making so much money out of Tesla from holding stock and options, not because I want to make money but I want to support them, in their mission to transit the world into sustainable energy for the future generations to come.

.. Kenyuan 




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    Teng Kenyuan

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