1. Higher unemployment rates are one of the most widely recognized indicators of a recession. For example, in December 2007, the national unemployment rate was 5%, and it had been at or below that rate for the previous 30 months. At the end of the recession, in June 2009, it was 9.5%.
As of the most recent reading, the U.S. unemployment rate is 4.9%, the lowest it's been since the end of the recession. Not only is the unemployment rate low, but job growth continues to be strong, averaging about 1% to 2% growth year-over-year since 2011.
2. Wage Growth Is Accelerating. Decelerating or falling wages are another strong indicator of a recession. However, lately wage growth has been accelerating, at a three-month moving average of about 3.1% in December. In 2015, inflation was between -0.20% and 0.73%; as of January 2016, it was 1.37%, , making this real wage growth all the more encouraging.
3. Retail Sales Have Picked Back Up Lately. Retail sales have been in a downtrend for a couple of years. However, as of data compiled through Feb. 20, the year-over-year change in weekly shopping center retail sales has bounced back up to about 3%, suggesting an improvement for overall retail sales in the months ahead.
I recognise there are lots of technical people that visits this site, so let me provide something technical.
The most recent reading in November showed a probability of 4.06%.
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